Latest | Y-Squre Research

Blog Explainer

Understanding currency depreciation: a mechanics explainer

Why a currency falls is rarely one thing. The balance-of-payments mechanism, the interest-rate channel and the risk-premium channel are separated, with the diagnostic that tells them apart.

26 Sep 2026, 16:00 /7 min read

Blog Analysis

What a central bank balance sheet tells you that the rate does not

Expansion and contraction are not symmetric signals. A framework that weights them equally will systematically over-read tightening.

26 Sep 2026, 14:30 /6 min read

Research Research Note

The balance sheet is the policy: reading central banks past the rate decision

The asset side of a central bank balance sheet expresses intent. It has led comparable changes in rate stance by two to three quarters in the episodes examined, and it fails in identifiable ways.

26 Sep 2026, 11:00 /8 min read

Reporting sections

No event reports published yet Geopolitics, macro and markets reporting will appear here in reverse chronological order. Sections exist and are linked below; they are empty because nothing has been published, not because anything is hidden.